College Football Week 13 Picks
Column Record: 30-24-3 (2-2 in Week 11)
Total Record: 35-28-3
I’m going to post 2 records each week. One that tracks the official column picks and one that tracks my overall record since I’ll add plays throughout the weekend (some sober others not so much). If I add plays I will tweet them out as I place them. This way it gives you an accurate and transparent look at how the picks are faring.
Week 11 Recap:
Baylor -2.5 at TCU: Win
Clemson -34.5 at NC State: Win
Northwestern v Purdue Under 39: Loss’
Alabama -5.5 v LSU: Loss
So I took Week 12 off due to being on an international cruise with my wife. As much as I lobbied for the full wifi package on the ship, I lost that battle. But we’re back for a nice slate in Week 13 and we’re due for a really good week. Entirely too many weeks of being .500 or 1 game above.
Enough shitdickin’, let’s get to the picks.
** All lines courtesy of Bovada
Week 13 Picks:
East Carolina -15 at UConn: I absolutely love what I’ve seen from ECU over the last month. In a season where early on they looked absolutely dead, they’ve played really competitive football recently. QB Holton Ahlers has found his stride and the ECU offense is averaging almost 32 ppg the last 5 weeks. UConn, on the other hand, is averaging less than 10 ppg over the last 5 weeks when they aren’t playing UMass. Neither team is playing for a bowl bid but the trend line for both is quite different. Give me the Pirates -15 in Storrs.
Ohio State -18 v. Penn State: I know there’s a million reasons to take Penn State here. So maybe this is just me being contrarian for contrarian’s sake. But I’m just not sure Penn State is actually any good. I know these games have been closely contested recently. I know the stats on OSU covering (or lack thereof) the week before Michigan. But I can’t see the Nittany Lions scoring a bunch of points on Ohio State, especially with Chase Young back. I love Ohio State in a massive way this week.
Minnesota -14.5 at Northwestern: This is my favorite play of the week. I still think Minnesota is good. They easily could’ve beaten Iowa last week. And if they do, this number is closer to 21. That’s why, in my opinion, there’s good value on the Gophers this week. Northwestern still can’t score. The weather should be good and I think Minnesota’s WR’s feast on the Northwestern secondary. Minnesota still has a lot to play for so they need to make a statement against one of the worst teams in college football.
Duke v Wake Forest over 49.5: What the hell happened to Duke last week? Getting blown out by Syracuse in Wallace Wade? Very strange. Wake, understandably, got blown at Clemson and are banged up on offense with the loss of WR Sage Surratt. The two teams combined to score 9 points last week. Yuck. But neither defense is any good and both Wake and Duke still have some pieces on offense. I think Kendall Hinton from Wake has a massive game against a terrible Duke secondary. We’ll know if this is the right side early as I think this game is either in the 30s or 60s. I’m betting on the latter.
Tulane +6 v Central Florida: No team all season has been more over valued than UCF. I think Tulane wins this game outright and I’ll probably take a small piece on the money line. Tulane has a formula to win this game given Willy Fritz’s triple option offense (255 rushing yards per game) that will chew clock and keep UCF’s offense off the field. Both teams had poor showings last week as UCF inexplicably lost at Tulsa and Tulane lost a winnable game on the road at Temple. I also think this game stays under the 69.5.
Oregon State at Washington State over 76.5: The only thing that would keep this game under is weather. And it’s supposed to be 45 and sunny tomorrow in Pullman. So...yea. Neither team plays any defense at all. Both offenses have been sensational all year averaging a combined 71 ppg and more than 900 yards per game. Hell, Oregon State’s offense is averaging almost 40 ppg against defenses not named Utah, Cal, and Washington. This game might get to 100 and if you can find Anthony Gordon (WSU QB) passing yards prop please bet the over.