College Football Week 2 Picks
Column Record: 3-3
Total Record: 6-4
I’m going to post 2 records each week. One that tracks the official column picks and one that tracks my overall record since I’ll add plays throughout the weekend (some sober others not so much). If I add plays I will tweet them out as I place them. This way it gives you an accurate and transparent look at how the picks are faring.
Week 1 Recap: Last week the column picks went 3-3 and our season record is now 6-4 (see the Louisville bet below). I hate to be “bad beat guy” but damn, a few of those were tough. We had Oregon on the ML at +150 and they lose the lead for the first time all game with :09 to go. Additionally, we had Purdue/Nevada under and it went over with :52 left in the game. Purdue and Nevada scored 42 of the 65 points in 7 game minutes. In any event, we were about 1 minute away from 5-1. Here’s the good news...at least we weren’t on Northwestern plus 7.5.
Anyway, onward and upward. Let’s see if we can get back on track this week. And follow me on Twitter @VWOJoel as I will occasionally post additional plays (i.e. Louisville +11 in the first half that hit on Monday) that I’ve added throughout the weekend.
Enough shitdickin, here are Week 2 picks sure to be wrong.
**All lines used are from Bovada
Wake Forest (-17.5) at Rice: The good news for Rice is that they only gave up 14 points last week to Army. The bad news is they only scored 7 points against a defense who returned 4 starters and lost their superstar Defensive Coordinator, Jay Bateman. Rice only had 10 first downs, was 3/11 on 3rd down, and had a paltry 243 total yards. That won’t cut it against WF. Wake racked up 579 yards of offense, was 13/24 on 3rd down, and only committed 1 penalty all game. In a back and forth game, Wake Forest scored with just over 1 minute left to steal the win at home against Utah State. Although there’s a slight concern of them looking ahead to their first conference game the following week against North Carolina, I think the momentum of a close, emotional win carries over this week and they bury a terrible Rice team.
Coastal Carolina (+8) at Kansas: Ugh. This line 100% absolutely, positively reeks. I hate myself for this. I know I’m going to regret it but should Kansas really be giving up more than a TD to any team right now? Last week they were lucky to squeak by FCS Indiana State where they needed a late touchdown to give them a 24-17 win. In the game they were out-gained 365 to 344, they turned the ball over 3 times, were 4/12 on 3rd down, and rushed for just barely more than 3 ypc. But outside of that, it went well. Look, I like Les Miles as much as the next guy but I don’t know how you lay 8 with the Jayhawks.
North Carolina (+4.5) v. Miami: I tweeted out (@VWOJoel) that I thought the Carolina number ballooned against South Carolina and that the rosters weren’t that different. That was absolutely evident on Saturday. And I might bet Carolina a lot this year because I think Jay Bateman (DC) is one of the best coordinators in the country. Bateman’s defense held South Carolina to 3/12 on 3rd down and only allowed 270 total yards (I do understand anyone who blames part of that on Muschamp). Miami’s offense looked, well, offensive against Florida where they made a mess of just about everything. They do have 2 weeks to prepare which certainly should help Miami. Offensively for Carolina, I really like what saw from true freshman Sam Howell. A consensus 4-star player, he led Carolina on 95- and 98- yard TD drives in crunch time to win the game. Their trio in the backfield (Javonte Williams, Antonio Williams, and Michael Carter) is sensational and they have playmakers on the outside with Dyami Brown (if you haven’t seen it stop reading this and Google his TD catch against South Carolina), Dazz Newsome, and Antoine Green. Lastly, the atmosphere should really help Carolina: Mack’s first home game, it's sold out, and a night game. Give me the Heels and the points and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if they won.
Texas (+6) v. LSU: We all know about Tom Herman as an underdog. And that’s probably, in a small way, a factor in this bet. But this is purely situational. Both Orgeron and Herman are in their 3rd full year at their respective schools. Both had successful campaigns in 2018. But in an odd way it feels like Herman needs this win more because of the expectations set upon him as the ‘next great coach’ in college football. And if Texas can win this game, they absolutely have a path to the playoffs as they get Oklahoma State at home, their only difficult road games are TCU and Iowa State, and of course the Red River Rivalry. Not that LSU doesn’t have a path but when you’re in the SEC East...well, you know. So I’m going to pick Texas to win the game but I’ll take 6 at home.
Vanderbilt (+7) at Purdue: You ever just watch two teams and see a line and think “that team isn’t X points better than them’. That’s kind of how I feel about this game.I watched both of these teams last week since we had action involving their games. I just don’t think Purdue is a touchdown better than Vandy. This game opened at Vanderbilt plus 9.5 and was quickly bet down to where it sits today at plus 7. Vanderbilt got pummeled by Georgia (expected) but they didn’t look that bad. Yes, they gave up 325 yards rushing but, again, it’s Georgia. Purdue can’t run the ball as they rushed for 96 yards last week against Nevada so that should be a positive for Vandy’s run defense. I thought Ke’Shawn Vaughn looked solid against Georgia and think he can have a big game against Purdue. I think this is a tight game late where either team can win. I also like under 55.5 but I’m not playing it.
Money Line Parlay (+150) - Wake Forest, Boise, Washington, UCLA, and Kentucky: I’ve had a ton of success over the years betting money line parlays on favorites. Books have gotten much smarter about how they price money lines for the favorites in recent years (a few years ago I had a 10 team ML parlay of huge favorites at +1000 but, unfortunately, that type of value is gone). However, several times throughout the year I’ll find value and play it as I am this week. I don’t think any of the 5 teams above is in real danger of losing and you can get it at plus money.
Likes, Not Loves: Washington -14 v Cal, Oregon State/Hawaii over 78.5, FAU +10 v Central Florida