College Football Week 3 Picks
Column Record: 6-5-1 (3-2-1 last week)
Total Record: 9-6-1
I’m going to post 2 records each week. One that tracks the official column picks and one that tracks my overall record since I’ll add plays throughout the weekend (some sober others not so much). If I add plays I will tweet them out as I place them. This way it gives you an accurate and transparent look at how the picks are faring.
Week 2 Recap
I hope you caught that we bought up to Texas +7 last week and posted it on my Twitter feed (@VWOJoel). That proved to be helpful as it got us to a push in a really good, close game. Joe Burrow looks like a totally different QB this year. I absolutely can’t wait for November 9th when LSU travels to Tuscaloosa.
North Carolina QB Sam Howell came up huge again at home v. Miami as they won outright 28-25. That’s 2 weeks in a row where Howell led Carolina back from 4th quarter deficits. Howell looks every bit the part of the highly-recruited QB Carolina imagined when they flipped him from Florida State last recruiting cycle. This week Carolina travels to Wake on Friday night. Wake opened -3.5 and it’s been bet down to -3. Total stay away for me.
I got what I deserved for betting Vanderbilt, much less Vanderbilt on the road. That’s about all I’ve got. Totally deserved that loss.
The money line parlay was a disaster. Chip Kelly has a problem in Westwood. You can’t lose at home to a SDSU team who beat Weber St 6-0 in Week 1. You just can’t. UCLA gets Oklahoma this week and is staring at 0-3. Yikes. Washington also lost at home to Cal so the parlay only hit 3 of the 5 teams. UCLA and Washington were pretty stunning losses considering the circumstances.
Coastal Carolina was a smooth cover at Kansas as they won outright 12-6. Again, like I wrote last week, not sure how you lay over a TD with Kansas right now. Speaking of Kansas…
**All lines used are from Bovada
Week 3 Picks:
Boston College -20.5 v Kansas: I bought this down to 20.5 from 21 and have it at -120. I think Boston College can either throw with Anthony Brown all game or run AJ Dillon all game. Whatever they’re in the mood for because I don’t think Kansas can stop either. Kansas has been outgained in both of their games this year against Indiana State and Coastal Carolina...at home. Now they go on the road against a very capable Boston College team that will dominate them on both sides of the line (they ran for 346 yards last week). I think Boston College easily scores 35+ and I don’t see how Kansas scores more than 14. I also like the under quite a bit in this game.
Eastern Michigan +8 at Illinois: I think there was an overreaction in the markets after Illinois covered easily Week 1 v Akron. I think it’s also a little more clear after Week 2 that Akron is worse than we thought (lost by 11 at home to UAB) and so is Illinois as they struggled on the road at UConn. Eastern Michigan competed well against Kentucky on the road last week as this was still a game in the 2nd half. My one concern here is that this is Eastern Michigan’s 3rd straight road game to open the season and their second against a Power 5 school (if that’s what Illinois is). A noon game in Champaign with zero atmosphere is a good spot for EMU to keep it close, however.
Charlotte Team Total Over 44 v UMass: Bovada doesn’t have the exact number posted (I will tweet it the number I play when posted) but this is an implied total as they’re favored by 19 and the game total is 69 (so the implied totals for each team is Charlotte 44, UMass 25). UMass has given up 48 points to Rutgers and 45 to FCS Southern Illinois. They’ve given up over 500 yards of offense in each game. Charlotte has one of the better RBs you’ve never heard of in Benny LeMay. Charlotte’s offense is averaging 45 ppg and 517 yards per game including 276 yards rushing per game. I think they torch UMass for 50+ and LeMay could go over 200 yards.
Bowling Green v La Tech under 58: Full disclosure: I went to Bowling Green. I love Bowling Green so I follow them very closely. Scott Loeffler inherited an absolute mess. I think he has a chance to be good but it’s going to take time. Last week in a game where they were getting blown out, they only threw the ball 24 times. He wants to run it and chew clock. La Tech has struggled offensively as they scored 20 points last week at home v. Grambling and racked up less than 400 yards. This is going to be an ugly game so I’ll take the under.
Florida at Kentucky First Half Under 24.5: Both Florida and Kentucky have had tendencies to start slow this season. Florida scored 7 and 17 against Miami and Tenn-Martin, respectively. While Kentucky has scored 14 and 17 against MAC opponents Toledo and Eastern Michigan. They also have significant injuries this week as Terry Wilson is out for Kentucky and Kadarius Toney and CJ Henderson are out for Florida. Now each faces their first SEC opponent in what is going to be a fantastic atmosphere in Lexington on Saturday night. This game has the same feel as Florida/Miami to me. Both are just fine taking this close to the 4th quarter. I like the game total under 50.5 but I love the first half under.