College Football Week 4 Picks
Updated: Sep 22, 2019
Column Record: 10-6-1 (4-1 last week)
Total Record: 13-7-1
I’m going to post 2 records each week. One that tracks the official column picks and one that tracks my overall record since I’ll add plays throughout the weekend (some sober others not so much). If I add plays I will tweet them out as I place them. This way it gives you an accurate and transparent look at how the picks are faring.
Week 3 Recap:
Week 3 was a good week for us going 4-1 in the column and the total winning percentage stands at 60%. We didn’t make any additional plays on Saturday. It started out terribly with BC laying an absolute egg at home on Friday night against Kansas. That was….surprising. Bounced back nicely on Saturday with a 4-0 day. EMU was an easy pick against Illinois and was winning the entire game. They kicked a fg at the end of regulation to win. Charlotte went over our number in the 3rd quarter. BG/La Tech started hot and had me worried. But reality set in and they combined for 14 points in the second half. Kentucky/Florida first half under 24 was there most of the way. Anyway, we’ll happily take 4-1 weekends.
Week 4 Picks:
6-Point Teaser - Northwestern +14/Michigan +9.5: One thing you won’t see me do often is tease college games. Typically, in my opinion, the spreads and the totals are too large for it to make sense. But here’s my one caveat to that - betting low scoring Big 10 games with teasers is doable. It has more of an NFL feel to it. Anyway, I actually like both Michigan and Northwestern at their normal lines (NU +8 and Michigan +3.5). Pretty simple for me with both teams: I think it’s a good spot to bet Michigan getting points and Northwestern has historically played Michigan State tough, plus they’re at home. This has the classic feel of a game Northwestern shouldn’t win but will. If you want to, a money line parlay between these 2 teams is +800 (I did a double take on that number) and is probably worth a shot in my opinion.
Texas A&M -4 v Auburn: I’m still not convinced the Auburn offense is good. Now you have Bo Nix going on the road for his first true road game in the SEC. A&M played Clemson tough on the road (they held Clemson to less than 400 yards of offense) and won’t be intimidated by the Auburn front. I don’t think Auburn can run on A&M which leaves more of the game on Nix. I think A&M can win by 10+ and was mildly surprised this number wasn’t closer to 7. Plus, I penciled this game in as a loss on my Auburn under their season win total bet. So I’m doubling down.
Kentucky at Miss. State First Half Under 24: Sawyer Smith is making his first start on the road in an SEC game against a bad Mississippi State team. Mississippi State has their own set of QB issues with Tommy Stevens nursing a shoulder injury. His backup is true freshman Garrett Shrader. And it’s not as if Stevens has been good when he has played. Just a lot of uncertainty at both QB positions so I’ll take the first half under.
Georgia -14.5 v Notre Dame: This was an auto-bet for me almost regardless of the number. And that line sitting at 14.5 tells me Vegas is begging for people to take Notre Dame. I do think Notre Dame can move the ball a bit against Georgia, just not enough to matter. Notre Dame hasn’t seen anything like Georgia since Clemson last year in the CFP. And we know how that went. I think Fromm picks apart the Irish, Swift goes for 150+, and UGa rolls.