College Football Week 5 Picks
Column Record: 10-9-2 (0-3-1 last week)
Total Record: 15-10-2
I’m going to post 2 records each week. One that tracks the official column picks and one that tracks my overall record since I’ll add plays throughout the weekend (some sober others not so much). If I add plays I will tweet them out as I place them. This way it gives you an accurate and transparent look at how the picks are faring.
Week 4 Recap:
Not going to mince words...the column picks were atrocious last week. I was salvaged by the 2 plays that I tweeted out (Coastal Carolina -17 at UMass and Nebraska team total over 37.5 at Illinois) to bring the total Week 4 record to 2-3-1. It’s really not worth rehashing since Georgia -14.5, Michigan/Northwestern teaser, and Texas A&M -4 weren’t close. Just bad plays. But on the bright side our total record is hanging strong at 60%.
One other thing, I have no clue how we’re at Week 5. Where did the first month go? Insane. Let’s get back on track and go 6-0 this week.
**All lines from Bovada
Week 5 Picks
Wisconsin -23.5 v Northwestern: I jumped on this line when it came out and it’s up to 24.5 now. Look, in the end, I was completely wrong about Northwestern this year. Their offense is anemic at best. They can’t run the ball, Hunter Johnson looks lost, and their best receiver (Ben Skowronek) went out with an injury against Michigan State. I just don’t know how they move the ball on this Wisconsin defense. I know there’s a letdown element with Wisconsin hammering Michigan last week but I’m not sure that even matters. Wisconsin knows they get a break with Kent St coming to Madison next week. I think this could get out of hand early.
Michigan v Rutgers First Half Under 28: Rutgers is only averaging 21 ppg and 353 total yards per game. And that includes playing UMass. In games outside of UMass, they’re avering 8 ppg and 252 ypg. Yikes. I just don’t see how Rutgers scores quite honestly. And Michigan has had a tendency to start slow. In their last two games they’ve scored a combined 7 points in the first half. Plus, a hangover from Madison is entirely possible (I’ve had plenty of hangovers due to being in Madison and I assure you they aren’t pleasant). I’ll take a shot on a slow start from the Wolverines who pull away eventually in the second half.
Akron at UMass over 63: This bet is absolutely hilarious. I’m taking the over for 2 teams who are averaging a combined 25 ppg. Conversely, they’re giving up a combined 90 ppg. So who the hell knows but I do know one thing...UMass doesn’t even try on defense. Literally. Their defense is giving up 8 yards per play, 561 yards per game, and 52 ppg. It’s awesome. I’ve bet against UMass’ defense for 2 weeks in a row with Charlotte’s team total over and Coastal Carolina -17. Let’s ride the wave. (P.S. This game is bound to end up 14-10 or something ridiculous).
Washington -10.5 v USC: Since Washington’s inexplicable loss at home to Cal, they’ve beaten Hawaii and BYU by an average of 29 ppg and seem like a different team. Their 45-19 win at BYU last week was very impressive. For USC, their win at home against Utah was solid but Utah RB Zach Moss got hurt and Utah killed themselves with 16 penalties for 120 yards (bet those practices with Kyle Whittingham were fun this week). Additionally, and more importantly, Kedon Slovis left the game with a concussion and is not cleared to play. That leaves RS Junior Matt Fink as the team’s only QB and he would be making his first career start. Ummm...Husky stadium is no place to make your first career start. By the way, if Fink were to get hurt, USC does not have another QB on the roster and the backup would be walk-on Safety Brandon Perdue. I’ll take Chris Petersen in this situation.
Arizona State +4.5 at Cal: I think this is a great situational spot for Arizona State to come in and potentially win the game. Cal is riding high at 4-0 coming off a cross-country trip to Ole Miss, are now ranked 15th in the country, and a date with Oregon next week in Eugene is looming in their future. There’s no question Cal is overrated based purely on their sloppy (and arguably lucky) win at Washington. In their other three games against Ole Miss, North Texas, and UC-Davis they’ve won by an average of 9 points. For ASU, they backed up the ugly win in East Lansing with an equally ugly loss at home to Colorado. But it looks like their offense might’ve turned a corner as freshman Jayden Daniels passed for 345 yards and 2 TDs. Give me the Sun Devils plus the points in Berkeley.
Fresno State - 17 v. New Mexico State: New Mexico State is giving up over 50 ppg (while 2 of their opponents were Washington State and Alabama they did give up 55 to New Mexico), is 129th in total defense, and is giving up 7.75 yards per play. In comes Jeff Tedford with basically 2 weeks to prepare (sorry, Sacramento State) and has an off week next week before they get Air Force. Fresno’s first two games were close, tough losses at Minnesota and at USC. I think this is a great spot for Fresno to get right and bury one of the worst teams in college football.