Daily Dozen: Week 2 DFS Picks
Updated: Sep 15, 2019
Week one was a solid week for me with the Daily Dozen picks. Here are the high and low lights:
Each of these guys did THE WORK this week, and if you read my suggestions, you probably had them in your lineups. If you did, they probably helped you win. Some combination of this crew helped me win in both GPP and multipliers.
Chris Carson = 21.1
Delanie Walker = 20.00
Lamar Jackson = 38.56
Le’Veon Bell = 20.20
John Brown = 21.8
Ouch, That HURT
Well, if you went with me on these picks, you know that pain that it caused. As a side plug, which is also why I write the Drinks of the Weeks piece; they can be a beautiful pain-reliever to the pain caused by picks such as these.
Devonta Freeman = 2.6
Mike Evans = 3.8
Stephon Diggs = 4.7
George Kittle = 9.4 (this isn’t awful but not at all worth the price)
As a whole this week, I broke even plus some change. So, overall, not the best case, but any week where we don’t lose bankroll overall is nothing to complain about. Let’s see if we can do some bankroll building with this week’s Daily Dozen. Here it comes!
As a reminder, this week’s picks are for FanDuel and include Sunday (with a few Monday picks--if you want to play the Sun-Mon slate).
Derek Carr, QB - 6,600 v. KC
While it was vs. Denver, I like what I saw from both Carr and this offense on Monday night. While not super gaudy numbers by any means, his 259 yards passing and 1 TD with no INTs are a good sign. This pick as has much to do with matchup and price as anything else. At 6,600, he is a massive value choice and should provide something in the 2.5-2.7 points per 1K. That is a value I like AND this game has an O/U line of 53. We know for sure that KC is going to score, and I think that Oakland has the ability to do the same back. He was only pressured 4 times in week 1 (4th best for the week), and that is enough to help average QBs become really good. They should keep Mahomes off the field a bit with the production and volume of Jacobs, and the connection with Ty Williams looks to really be a thing. If Oakland can keep this within two scores throughout, which being at home I think they can, he should have just the right amount of volume and an ideal game script to pay off big time at that price.
Prediction: 24.5 points
Carson Wentz, QB - 7,700 vs Dak Prescott, QB - 7,700 (both good...one better)
It seems worth writing about these two at the same time. Let’s start by saying I love both this week. They cost the same. They both had a great week 1 line. They both have plus matchups (Wentz @ Atlanta & Dak @ Washington), but both on the road, so there is no separation there. They both seem to be putting out similar numbers on pt/$k return (projecting around the 2.5-2.7 range). So, both are great plays, so given that, I am turning to the Vegas numbers to separate these two. Dallas is a five-point road favorite with an O/U of 46.5 compared to Philly which is a 1.5 road favorite with an O/U of 51. The short of it is this: feel confident firing up either as your starter, but if forced to choose, Give me Wentz at Atlanta.
Prediction Wentz: 29.5
Prediction Dak: 24.3
Austin Ekeler, RB - 7,500 @ Det
Melvin Gordon who? What a week one it was for this guy. His 36.4 fantasy points were the monster number that many needed to win lots of cash, and while I don’t plan on him duplicating that this week, the 7,500 price tag is nice. The matchup isn’t great at the surface seeing how Detroit only gave up 82 yards to David Johnson in week 1, but DJ also had 55 yards receiving. We learned that this Detroit team is better than we thought on both sides of the ball which should keep this game close but also high scoring. With Henry out, there is a good chance his usage increases which makes him an even sexier play. I think the over at 48 hits and that the 2.5 line is about right. So, in a high-scoring close game, give me Ekeler’s role in and connection with Rivers in this offense all day long. The prediction here is that he is much closer and ends around a 25 ish point ceiling than he does a 7-8 point floor.
Leonard Fournette, RB - 6,900 vs. Houston
I will be the first to admit that this is a risky one, and that is why I love it. With an unheralded rookie QB captaining the ship and up against a team that could get up big early, game flow is the big risk here. I am going to trust that Doug Marrone understands that pounding the rock with Fournette is the best bet to win, and he gets to do it vs. a Houston team that gave up 148 total rushing yards to NOLA in week 1. Fournette was a victim of game flow in week one (which is why this is risky), but he was productive with the work he got. He had 13 carries for 66 yards which gave him a 5.1 ypc; he also tallied 4 catches for 28. I am predicting him to have more and smarter work (look for them to call a few more runs which go off tackle and/or sweep outside--both for balance and to get him into space). Because of game flow worries, ownership should be low, so take the risk and lock it in!
Chris Carson, RB - 7,400 vs. Pittsburgh
This was a guy I targeted way early in the off-season, and I am not backing off on him now. We saw two GREAT things in this game: Seattle wanted to run the ball with Carson (which will happen again this week), and when they struggled to do so, they threw the ball to Carson. There was little doubt as to who the guy is in this backfield. Penny had a mere six touches; I love that! He is still reasonably priced and playing at home again which is always a good thing especially for Seattle. Looking at week one, Carson was actually the leader in receptions with 6 and targets with 7. That’s a sexy thing to get out of a running back who also had 15 carries. I am not foolish enough to think that Seattle’s offense is the same as the Patriots, but NE running backs combined for 85 yards rushing (nothing too impressive) but also for 97 yards receiving. I think this trend continues this week in a game with a respectable, though not amazing, 46.5 O/U. The floor could be low if they struggle to get him going and end up throwing to their WR more, but his projected averages (around 14-16), and possible ceiling (upwards of 29) have me in love with this play for the second week in a row.
Tyrell Williams, WR - 5,900 vs. KC
I love his week 1 performance. I really like his QB in week 2 (see above). I like his match-up. I like the potential game flow. I like the game’s O/U. And, I LOVE the price tag. The fear here is immediacy bias, but I am willing to take that risk at this price tag and in this matchup. This could be a matchup nightmare for Kendall Fuller as Williams has a good four inches over him (plus his near 40-inch vertical) and similar to if not better speed than Fuller. Find it hard to think of a scenario in which Williams doesn’t score in this one (well unless Jacobs grabs 2-3 again). Don’t overthink it; just jump in! He and Carr will be stacked in many of my lineups.
Amari Cooper, WR - 7,800 at Washington
A fantastic week 1, Cooper put up a 17.7 yard average with his 6 catches for 106 yards and a TD, and this week he draws a Washington defense that gave up 154 yards to D Jax and 49 plus a TD to Alshon (313 total in the air). This matchup is ripe for another big game, and there should be enough to go around, which means the rising of Gallop doesn’t scare me off here at all. Cooper should see Quinton Dunbar, and I love that matchup for him. He looks to be healthy, and when that is the case, he runs routes about as well as anyone. This game has a respectable O/U at 46.5, but I see it easily going over as Washington showed in week 1 that they can score the ball. The 5 point line means it should stay close enough to have a reason to throw, so that means Cooper at 7,800 is a great play this week. As I shared above, I love Dak this week, too, so if you are looking for a stack, this is a great place to build one.
Sammy Watkins, WR 7,400 vs. Mercole Hardman, WR 4,700
Much like the Dak vs. Wentz debate explored above, I want to be clear: I like BOTH of these guys this week...even in the same line up! Sammy’s week 1 speaks for itself, so with Hill out, Sammy is a no brainer. I don’t expect him to duplicate week 1, but I just can’t think of a situation where in this offense, with no Hill, and up against Jamarcus Joyner he doesn’t have another great week. At 7,400 he is a really good play in both GPP and cash games; his floor should decent in this offense, and we saw his ceiling in action in week 1. As for Mercole, this is a GPP play only, but it is worth the dart throw. With a 4.33 40 time and a soft match up vs. Trayvon Mullen, it is worth the dart throw at his price. Because of his big-play potential and Mahomes’ ability to throw the deep ball, his ceiling could be just as high as Watkins; however, his floor is a possible goose egg. Nonetheless, I like both of these guys this week. This game has the highest O/U of the week at 53, and a line that should keep it close enough with the Chiefs only an 8 point favorite. As you saw above, I like Carr and Willimas, so you can see how much I like this game, and therefore, these two guys!
Prediction Watkins: 17.3
Prediction Hardman: 15.7
Evan Engram, TE 6,400 vs. Buffalo
This one just comes down to the simple fact that Eli really doesn’t have anywhere else to go with the ball. See week one which gave him a massive 14 targets. Now, the matchup isn’t great as Buffalo has been one of the better teams (2nd overall) in the NFL vs. the TE over the last 8 weeks (stat from Yahoo). But that just isn’t enough to scare me off this play. The floor is safe because of the volume, and the ceiling is high because of the volume. Shepard is out for sure, and Cody Latimer just showed up with a DNP Thursday (some sort of calf issue). Even if Latimer plays, I love Engram, but without him, I LOVE Engram. It’s easy to see ways in which he has double-digit targets again this week and scores at least once.
Cleveland D/ST, 3,900 @ NYJ
I like this play for two reasons: 1. The Jets are bad, starting Tervor Siemian, and lost Enunwa. 2. I don’t think this Cleveland D/ST is even half as bad as we saw in week 1 vs. Tennessee. In week 1, with Darnold, the Jets struggled to score, putting up only 16 points. Bell is healthy which helps the Jets some, but I just don’t see them being able to move the ball. Here is the key to this pick: Cleveland needs to clean up the lack of discipline and cut the damn penalties. In total, the team committed 18 for 182 yards. Seven of those were on the defense, and of those seven, five of those were just a pure lack of discipline (according to Tim Bielik’s analysis of all 18 posted at cleveland.com). So, you see, this is fixable, and if they clean it up, they have the horses to make the Jets look even worse than they actually are. They are cheap, fired up after being embarrassed, and will look to bring the noise all game long.
Prediction: who really knows...it’s a damn defense.
The Baker’s Dozen…
Mark Ingram, RB 7,500 vs. Arizona
Just do it!!! This is the one guy that I will have in every line up I play this week. He sailed his way to 22.7 points in week one, ripping of 107 yards on just 14 carries and adding two scores. This week, he is facing a Cardinals team at home, in possible rain, and oh by the way, they just happened to be the same Cardinals team that gave up the MOST FANTASY POINTS to opposing RBs last year. Sure, they did a nice job on Kerryon Johnson last week holding him to just 49 yards on 16 carries, but do not let that fool you. That is much more a reflection on Detroit's rushing attack than an improvement in the Cardinal’s defense. Plus this Baltimore team is GOOD, with a very good offensive line, a very mobile QB, and has a great chance to be the team leader in rushing yards by the end of the season. With a 45.5 O/U and a big 13.5 spread, the Ravens will get up early and pound the rock a ton. Get this man in your lineups!