Daily Dozen: Week 3 DFS Plays
Updated: Sep 29, 2019
So...week 2...that happened. While it wasn’t a full-out disaster, I certainly don’t love how week 2 played out for me. Let’s take a look back:
Each of these guys did the work this week, and if you read my suggestions, you hopefully had them in your lineups. If you did, they probably helped you win. Some combination of this crew helped me win in both GPP and multipliers.
Dak Prescott 30.66
Austin Ekeler 20.3
Mercole Hardman 14.1
Cleveland D/ST 13.0
Eh...You Were Fine At Your Price
These guys certainly didn’t do as well as I hoped, but they also, because of their price, didn’t kill me.
Carson Wentz 18.00
Ty Williams 13.1
Amari Cooper 12.4
Ouch, That HURT
Well, if you went with me on these picks, you know that pain that it caused. As a side plug, this is also why I write the Drinks of the Weeks piece; they can be a beautiful pain-reliever to the pain caused by picks such as these. As a fun new twist to this piece, we are going to play the “would have been better with” game each week. Because sometimes all we can do is laugh...or else we would cry.
Derek Carr 10.4 (would have been better with David Carr)
Leonard Fournette 10.7 (would have been better with Leonard Cohen)
Chris Carson 8.2 (would have been better with Johnny Carson)
Sammy Watkins 7.9 (would have been better with Sammy Davis Jr.)
Evan Engram 7.8 (would have been better with Dear Evan Hansen)
Mark Ingram 8.7 (would have been better with any Mark living or dead)
As a whole this week, I lost a little bankroll. Hit pretty well on cash games, but the payout on tourneys just wasn’t there. Let’s see if we can do some bankroll building with this week’s Daily Dozen. Here it comes!
As a reminder, this week’s picks are for FanDuel.
A new twist to this piece for this week, I am going to feature 4 stacks plus 4 dudes I love how much I love. So, here we go.
Four Stacks I love How Much I Love
Jameis Winston, 7,300 + Chris Godwin, 7,600 home vs. NYG
This one is a sexy tourney play for me. Jameis hasn’t been good which is why we love him...yes, I know how little sense that makes. But bare with me here. He has a total of 23.38 points this year (yes total--that is not an average), so I am expecting low ownership. The matchup is sexy; the Giants have given up 321 passing yards per game through the first two weeks as well as 5 passing TDs. Additionally, they have zero INTs and have allowed QBs to throw at a 70% completion rate. This plays out perfectly for Jameis. The INT has, historically, been his biggest flaw, but this Giants’ D will struggle to take the ball away, and in week two, Winston was INT free! This one is coming down to three things which make it a perfect tourney play: matchup, price, ownership. Now we just sit back and hope that in his 3rd game with Bruce Arians the Bucks have figured it out and can exploit this matchup.
As for Chris Godwin, I am shocked his price is still so low, so let’s enjoy it while we can. 6 targets in week 1 and a team-high 9 in week 2--which he converted into 8 catches for 121 yards and a rip. Enter his match up with Grant Haley; we already feel badly for him in this one: Godwin is bigger, faster, and while I don’t have a metric for it, we are going to assume stronger. It is growing clearer with each game that Jamies is locked in on number 12, and this week should be no different.
As a game, it is the 3rd highest O/U line at 47.5, so there will be points, and my money is on the fact that a lot of those come from TB. And with the Giants turning to the rookie and the Bucs’ defense looking very capable in week 2, there is a good chance they earn some short fields and put up points in a hurry.
Kyler Murray 7,200 + Christian Kirk 5,900 home vs. Carolina
Kyler Murray is number 1 in the NFL...in passing attempts and priced at 7,200 and playing a Carolina D that is giving up an average of 25 points a game. Oh, ya, and he only has 17 rushing yard. There is NO WAY that they drafted him simply for his arm, and let me be clear, that is no knock on his arm. I think he is a great passer and only going to get better. Through his first two games of his career, he leads the NFL in attempts and is 4th in rating at 81.7. But the creative, up-tempo, and aggressive playing calling of Mr. Kingsbury plans on using his legs, and I think this is the week. Will the real Kyler Murray please stand up...and run? He will. This is a great matchup for that as Carolina is better vs. the pass than the run, but either way, their D has yet to prove that they are anything better than average. Kyler has been over 300 yards in both games and just keeps getting better. I love this play in both cash and tourney plays this week, but as a stack, it just seems super sexy in tourneys.
As for his stack partner, enter second-year WR Christian Kirk. While he is the number 2 to the 109-year-old Larry Fitzgerald, he is producing number 1 type targets thanks to Kingsbury’s offense. Through two weeks, Kirk has a whopping 20 targets which is good for the 6th highest number in the NFL. At 5,900 this is a STEAL. His price will increase once his week one clunker (1 catch on 12 targets...a lot of that was Murray’s bad first 3 quarters) begins to give way to weeks like last week. He gets Javien Elliott which RotoGrinders is listing as the second-best best matchup for the week. This play has high value, high opportunity, and should have high productivity.
Josh Allen 7,500 + John Brown 5,900 home vs. Cincy
Josh Allen is proving to be what we thought: a decent NFL QB, but a very good/safe play in Fantasy Football. He is averaging 20.09 points through two weeks which have seen him score a rushing TD in each. We know he has massive potential any given week. To end last season, he was in the top 5 in QB scoring in 4 of the last 8 weeks. The team is winning games, the offense has gotten better each week, and now get a Cincy D that has given up 62 points through two weeks--oh, and they are most likely missing one of their best defensive linemen in Carl Lawson. This could be the week that we see one of those 200-250 yard passing and 100+ yard rushing games from Allen. The price tag plus the high ceiling that his legs help provide make him a very nice cash-game play for me this week.
As for Brown, he is a bit risky as we wait to see if his role and numbers are who he now is in Buffalo, but his target share and price tag make him a great cash game stack with Allen. He has 18 targets through two weeks, and they were evenly divided, really. 10 in week 1 which he turned into 21.8 points and 8 in week 2 which were good for 10.7. Even if he only puts up 10.7, there is value here at 5,900 (and the price of Allen for the stack). He gets a plus matchup in William Jackson. Think of it this way: last week vs. the 49ers, the Cincy D gave up passing TDs to two different WR and one passing TD to a RB. Samuel and Goodwin each had at least 77 yards and a TD with averages of 17.2 and 25.7 ypc. This is a perfect spot for Brown’s speed and Allen’s love of the deep ball. Like I said, as a stack, this pair should be great in cash games, but Brown is also a great tourney play (probably just without the stack as I expect Allen ownership to be high in tourneys) because his price tag should allow you to pay for a better stack.
Tom Brady 7,800 + Josh Goron 6,000 home vs NYJ
With 76 points scored through two games and a full week of practice with all their weapons (and relatively little drama),
Well, that sentence is what I had written as of Friday morning..so ya, let’s start this one over.
With 76 points scored through two games and a full week of practice...and TONS OF FRIDAY DRAMA…. this team looks poised to score, score, and score some more. Let’s state the obvious, the AB saga will have no impact on a pro like Brady. So, enter the Jets…who just gave up 23 points to the Browns and could easily be the second or third-worst team in the NFL. Brady is QB4 through two weeks with super steady production of 24.66 and 25.64, and I don’t see that changing at all this week. This one is just too easy not to play. A great cash-game play because we know both the floor and upside is there, and the price tag is surprisingly low for QB #4. The running game might steal a few TDs, but there is plenty of scoring to share, and let’s be honest, the running game might not; Brady could easily throw for 4 or 5 TDs. Even better, we know they have no problems running up the score. Don’t overthink it. Just lock him in.
The paragraph below is also what I had written through early Friday morning, so I am sticking with it and like it even more now. Gordon, back as the guy with JE and no AB to worry about, is a great play at 1,700.
Either of their big two WRs makes sense, it sort of just depends on how you want to build your lineup. Both of these guys have great matchups, but I just like Gordon’s better. I have a feeling that this season will find us playing a similar guessing game with the Pats’ WRs as we traditionally have with their RBs. We know that on any given week either of these two could hit the home run shot, and call it a gut feeling, but since AB was the guy last week, I am going with Gordon this week. But you really cannot go wrong with either in this matchup. I will take the 1,700 dollar difference in price and build a cash lineup in which Gordon is my “worst” player.
Four Other Dudes I love How Much I Love
Chris Carson 7,000 home vs. NOLA
I have now featured Carson each of the first three weeks. I know some of you will be scared away from playing him this week--maybe because his totals last week were bad and/or because of the two fumbles in week 2; however, I am not. In fact, I will thank him for his clunker last week because we get a great price tag on him now in week 3. Plus, he has the Saints D which has given up 297 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs through two weeks. He is at home which always helps. They are playing against a backup QB, and yet the O/U is still 48.5 (the second-highest of the week). And the line is a mere .5. Vegas thinks this will be close and points will be scored. I agree, and I like Carson do so some of that scoring. He will continue to split time with Penny who, admittedly, had a better week 2 than Carson; however, even after the lost fumble, they put the ball in Carson’s hands to finish out the game. This is a team that wants to pound the rock, and even with a backup QB, they will try to keep Kamara and Thomas off the field as much as possible. He has 15 carries in each of the first two weeks, and 10 total targets for 9 catches. If they keep the game close, he will get the carries, and if they fall behind, he can get the catches. It is a risky play based on week 2, but that is why I like it.
Marlon Mack 7,000 home vs. Atlanta
This one will come down to health. If he is a full go, he is a must-play. If not, then stay clear. But if healthy, let’s take a look at what he offers. He is 2nd in the NFL in total carries with 45 through two weeks. He is 3rd in total rushing yards with 225. He has a 16.35 fantasy average. While the Atlanta D looked better in week 2, let us not forget the 172 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs they surrendered to the Vikings in week 1. The O/U is a good number at 47.5 (roughly 3rd highest for the week), and the line is just 2.5. Indy will want to keep a talented (even if yet to fully show it) Atlanta offense off of the field, and a great way to do that will be with Mack. I would imagine he gets 20-25 touches and makes the most out of them. At 7,000, he is a great cash or tourney play.
Austin Ekler 7,600 home vs. Houston
When a single player can put up 20.3 fantasy points in a game where his team only scores 10 real points, I am intrigued! This man is just flat out doing the work this season. The numbers speak for themselves: 29 carries, 124 rushing yards, 2 rush TD, 12 catches, 163 receiving yards and 2 TDs. This week he gets a Houston defense who, in week 1, gave up 148 rushing yards and 1 TD, and Kamara had 7 catches for 72 yards. I expect the Bolts offense to give the Texans similar troubles (compared to the relative lack of success from the Jags O vs. Texas D in week 2). This game has an O/U of 48.5 (second-highest number) and a 3.5 line. You know that is a combo I like, that we all like--high scoring but competitive games. He is still relatively cheap, given his production, so lock him in while you can.
Marquise Brown 6,100 at KC
It is just time to admit, yes even after two weeks, that this guy is legit. Week 1 was something special, but it is what I saw in week 2 that I liked even more: 13 targets and top WRs in snaps played on the team. They want him to be their #1, and he is going to do just that. So, you give me one of the fastest dudes in the NFL, on what looks to be one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL, with what seems to be one of the better QBs in the NFL, who is also one of the fastest QBs in the NFL and tell me he is going to get 13 targets...I. AM. IN!!! He is playing in the week’s highest projected scoring game at 54.5 and most likely covered by Bashuad Breeland; Brown should be able to beat him deep all day (Lamar is completing 57% of his passes that are 15 or more yards in the air--according to ESPN). Remember, DJ Chark went 4/146/1 vs. this Chiefs D. This game is going to have points; that is just a fact, and at 6,100 Brown might just be the cheapest way to get a big share of that scoring.