Hot Take 2019: Why I'm OK With Drafting 3 QBs In A One QB League
Updated: Aug 15, 2019
This is going to be one of the craziest fantasy articles you have read, so let me start with a few disclaimers:
1. I don’t advocate this move for just any random 3 QBs; as you will see, it is a very specific combination of 3 that make sense for this strategy. I am saying it is specifically these 3 QBs, not just any random 3 that make sense.
2. Like with any strategy in FF, one must be able to adjust. I cannot promise that this will work, but the best part about it is that if it doesn’t, you won’t have missed out on much in the draft, and odds are whomever else you would have taken in place of one or two of these QBs would be an early/mid-season cut as so often is the case with late-round picks.
You know your league(s) best. This might not work in every league based on how the other owners do or do not value QB, but if you are in a league where the QB is valued in a way that owners are drafting the top and middle-tier guys early, this could be your ticket to victory!
3. Draft in order of your favorite of the three to your least favorite of the three as there is, obviously, no promise all three will be there when you want to, but the odds are actually pretty high.
Lamar Jackson, Mitchell Trubisky, and Josh Allen. That is the combo to target with this strategy. This plan is based around QBs that should have pretty solid floors because of their ability to run the ball (with some potential high ceilings--each for different reasons). Let’s look at each guy individually, first, then we will explore why their schedules make them a great trio to own, and we will finish by exploring their ADP and draft ranges.
Lamar Jackson: As a starter in a mere 7 games as a rookie QB, Lamar Jackson set the all-time record for rushing attempts by a QB. In those 7 games, he averaged just shy of 20 attempts per game and close to 100 yards per game. His schedule has him with the projected 5th easiest QB schedule. He, unlike last year, has all of training camp as the starter plus had an entire off-season to continue to develop. He actually threw the deep ball well at Louisville and should be able to do that more this year. The WR core is certainly a question, but the combination of the potential ability to hit the deep ball with those rushing numbers and strength of schedule make him a high floor lock with high ceiling potential any given week. After all, he averaged roughly 21 points per game in his starts last year.
Mitchell Trubisky: Admittedly, this one comes with some homer bias, but there is plenty for non-Bears fans to love about Trubisky. Let’s start with the “he has potential” convo. Yes, we are going to remind everyone that he only played 13 total games in college and has played only 26 in the NFL. Though that time, we have seen some (admittedly we would like more) good development, and the addition of Matt Nagy last year is only going to accelerate that growth. People are super high on Baker Mayfield this year, and with those weapons, I get it, but most don’t know that Trubisky actually scored 52 more points than Mayfield with the two playing in the same amount of games. The offense is stacked, David Montgomery is a massive upgrade to Jordan Howard and will keep defenses honest and give a good veteran receiving core space to work. Add in Cohen and, at times, Cordarrelle Patterson, and this is an offense designed for big quarterback numbers. Plus, don’t forget, he has averaged 26 rushing yards per game as a starter in the NFL. Never a bad add-on. Regardless of if you go with this 3-QB strategy or not, I love Mitchell this year.
Josh Allen: Of the three, this one is probably the biggest risk and by far the one you take last, but there are reasons for situational optimism for Allen--especially in this 3-QB plan. In 12 games as a rookie starter last year, Allen averaged 52 rushing yards a game. Hard not to love those extra five points. Additionally, post-bye week, he had four of six games with 95 or more rushing yard including a week 17 break out which saw him put up 2 rushing TD and 3 passing TD (and Buffalo went 3-3 in those games post-bye games). In his two games vs. Miami last year, Allen did the following: game one saw him put up 231 yards passing, 2 passing TDs with 135 yards rushing, and game two saw him explode for 224 yards passing, 3 passing TDs with 95 yards rushing and 2 rushing TD. Guess what? He gets to play an equally bad (even if slightly better) Miami team two times again this year. Allen will HAVE TO cut down on the turnovers for sure, but with another off-season and the entire pre-season as the starter, those numbers are bound to go down. Add in the speed of Zay Jones (4.45) and John Brown (4.3) with Allen’s ability and desire to throw the deep ball, and there WILL be explosive weeks. Also, did you know that he led 3 game-winning drives last year? (we didn’t either)...
So, as you can see, there is a reason for optimism for each of them individually, but it is a deeper look at their schedules which make them appealing collectively. If you want to see a full breakdown of their schedule, you can click here. In summary, though, there are 12 of the 16 FF weeks in which at least one of them has a game vs. a projected bottom 10 defense, combined they have a total of 10 games vs. a projected bottom 5 defense. So, this combination allows you to have your own internal streaming system with very little thinking to do; you simply play the matchups. I am sure that there are other trios of QBs that would give you similar combine SoS numbers, but not at the ADP/value of these three.
The last factor in this strategy is their current ADP/positional rankings. Lamar is QB 18 with ADP of 131; Mitch is QB 19 with an ADP of 143, and Allen is QB 22 with an ADP of 151. So, this means in a 15-round draft, you could easily make these three guys you last three picks before moving on to kicker and defense (so rounds 11-13) and build a better quality bench (even though it will be slightly less quantity of it using 3 roster spots for QBs).
All three guys have upside, too, so there is always the chance that one might take the lead of the pack and allow you to use one of, or both, of the others as a trade piece, too. But even if not, this schedule-based streaming plan should produce some fireworks for you all season long.
And as a best ball trio, they are pure perfection; the odds that none of the three go off any given week based on the factors discussed above are pretty darn slim.