Magnificent 7 for Week 7
So, if you have been following along the last two weeks, you have been making money. Sure I picked the wrong Viking last week, but Thielen still produced. Bottom line, I have a good thing going these last two weeks. Stick with me here in week 7 as there is more goodness coming your way.
Check out our Twitter account for some videos of me talking about all of this week’s plays as well as the last two weeks.
This week I have prepared a Magnificent 7 (for week 7--get it) in which I share two powerful QB/WR stacks and 3 RBs I love. If you have been following along this season, you are going to see some familiar faces this week because as the old saying goes, if it ain’t broken, don’t fix it.
Josh Allen (7,700) and John Brown (5,900) home vs. Miami
Did I mention that they are home vs. Miami? I could be done with this explanation there, but you know I care about you all too much, so let’s look at some numbers. Miami’s D’s best statistical category is that they are 20th in passing TDs with 14 given up...that is their best. Next best? Passing yards per game with 270 allows which is good for 26th. From there, it just gets worse with them giving up 439 total yards per game and 36 points per game--both good for last. Let’s look at what Allen did to them last year in his two games:
1st game vs Miami in 2018 = 231 yrds passing, 2 pass TDs, and 135 yards rushing
2nd game vs. Miami in 2018 = 224 yrds passing, 3 pass TDs, 95 yards rushing, and 2 rush TDs
And, while they were still bad, Miami’s D was better last year.
As for John Brown, he has shown flashes this year, but what isn’t talked about a ton is that he is getting 8 targets a game, and according to Yahoo, his 78.8 yards from scrimmage is 9th best of the 100 who qualified. And oh ya, he is only 5,900.
It’s a stack that is going to be used a lot, so it is a much better cash game play than it is a tourney play, but I can see it working in both. Regardless, the combination of their prices and how bad Miami just makes sense.
Kyler Murray (7,700) and Larry Fitz or/both Christian Kirk (both 5,600) @ NYG
Part of this depends on Kirk’s health, but if you want to go crazy with a cheap tourney stack that will allow you to really pay up at WR1 and RB, playing all three guys could be awesome, and here is why. Fitz is 15th in targets with 8.7 and Krik is 13th with 9. This team throws a ball...A LOT and there is plenty of targets to supply both guys with a good game. And, well, the Giants D has not been good vs. the pass. In fact, they are 31st in passing yards with 304 per and T26 with 10 passing TDs surrendered. In week 5, Cousins put up 206 and 2. In week 6, Brady put up 334 yards. Enter Kyler Murray in week 6: 340 yards and 3 TDs with no INTs. Over their last 8 games, the Giants D has given up 30.1 fantasy points per game to WRs which is last in the NFL. Grant Haley and Janoris Jenkins are no match for Fitz’s experience and Kirk’s athleticism. This one could easily hit the over (49.5) with the Giants getting back Sqauon and Engram. I see a big-time shootout, and I see big-time numbers for these three.
Leonard Fournette (7,900) @ Cincy
This guy has been MY GUY all season long. I drafted him in every league I am in, and I love every bit of this. He is 3rd in ypg, 4th in carries pg, and 9th in RB targets per game. He now gets a Cincy D that is BAD! In week 5 they gave up 266 rushing yards to AZ, and in week 6 they gave up 269 rushing yards to the Ravens. Overall, they are 32nd in rush D with 184.5 per game, 31st in carries per game against with 34.83, and 32nd in rush TDs with 9. I really think Fournette gets close to 25-plus carries, scores at least once, and is the RB 1 this week with close to 25 points. This will be the last week he is under 8K as well. Don’t overthink this one; just play him in EVERY lineup.
Chris Carson (7,600) home vs. Baltimore
If Fournette has been my number 1 guy all season, Carson has been my 1A. I also have him in every league and have written about him/suggested him many weeks in this column, and I am not stopping that now. 3rd in carries with 19.67 (despite the fumble issues), 7th in yards per with 84. Since the start of last season, he has 82.8 yards per game which is 2nd best of the 35 qualified backs (according to Yahoo). I get the hesitation this week. Baltimore D is good--good enough for top 4 in rush D with only 80 yards a game, but they have given up 8 rush TDs which is 31st. Let us not forget what happened to them in week 4 when Chubb put up a 20/165/3 line and Hilliard also had a rush TD. The over/under is a massive 51.5 with a 3.5 spread. This game should be high scoring and close which means Carson scores twice and gets to the 20 plus mark.
Josh Jacobs (6,700) at Green Bay
Josh Jacobs makes his debut on this site for the first time. I was careful with him early, as I tend to be with rookie RBs not named Saquon. But at this point, it’s time to ride with this guy. 6th in ypg with 86, 9th in carries with 17 per, and 8th in rush TD with 4. Those are numbers I can get behind. This week, he gets a GB D that is pretty good, but let’s look at their only loss this season. Philly ran the ball 33 times for 176 yards and 2 TDs. This is how you beat this team, and while he might be annoying as an announcer, Gruden knows this fact very well and will not shy away from the run. I think Jacobs could easily get 20-plus carries and put up 15 plus points. Add in the fact that GB could struggle to score based on who does or doesn’t play WR for them this week, and I just think Jacobs makes sense. Add in a super reasonable price tag, and I am using him a lot this week.