NFL Week 4 Picks
Column Record: 5-6-1 (3-1 Last Week)
Total Record: 5-6-1
I’m going to post 2 records each week. One that tracks the official column picks and one that tracks my overall record since I’ll add plays throughout the weekend (some sober others not so much). If I add plays I will tweet them out as I place them. This way it gives you an accurate and transparent look at how the picks are faring.
Week 3 Recap:
We needed the 3-1 week that we had in Week 3. It had been beyond ugly in the first 2 weeks. The only loss we had was Baltimore/KC under 52.5. Our GB/Buffalo teaser, Colts/Falcons over, and Dallas -22.5 v Miami got there for us (we might’ve been on the wrong side with Dallas but we’ll take it).
Week 4 Picks:
In general, I don’t love the board this week. I found a few spots of value but overall, it’s just kind of ‘meh’ to me. Anyway, here are a few picks sure to be wrong:
6-Point Teaser - NE -1/KC -1: I don’t see either team losing even though they’re both on the road (and NE has a divisional road game). Stafford’s uncertainty could even make KC a play at -7 but I’ll tease it down as the Lions have played better than expected thus far.
Dallas -2.5 at New Orleans: This line feels incredibly inflated to me based on New Orleans win in Seattle last week. Bridgewater was extremely pedestrian as the majority of his yards came on dump offs to Alvin Kamara. As a general rule I don’t like laying points with a visiting team to the Superdome but I think Dallas is the best team in the NFC. And Dak has been playing at an MVP-type level through the first few weeks.
Chargers at Dolphins Under 44: Miami is averaging 5 ppg at home this year. The Chargers are averaging 10 points on the road. LA comes across the country for a 1pm kick local kick. I don’t know...is there really going to be 6 touchdowns scored in this game?? I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Dolphins covered for the first time all year this week.
Money Line Parlay: New England, Kansas City, Houston, LA Rams: 2 large road favorite and 2 large home favorite comprise a +170 money line parlay. This is really good value to get these 4 teams at plus money. NE and KC are the 2 best teams in the NFL, in my opinion, and I don’t see either the Rams or Houston losing at home. I know Kyle Allen looked good last week but he isn’t going into Houston and winning.