Two 2019 College Football Props I Like
I considered writing a “Best Bets to Win the Heisman” and then instantly thought better of it. There’s very little value, if any at all, in the Heisman market. I might tweet (follow us at @VegasWriteOff) out a few thoughts if you’re of the ilk to bet it. I really don’t suggest it, though.
However, below are 2 props I found this week that got my attention. Each are 1 unit bets (my standard unless otherwise noted but it will be pretty rare). I rarely get ‘chalky’ with my preseason props. It is usually scenarios that I could see playing out that gives me a good payout (think 5-1 or better typically).
Odds used below are from Bovada.
North Carolina to win Coastal (20-1): Here are the current odds to win the ACC Coastal: Miami (+160), Virginia Tech (+190), Virginia (+220), Pittsburgh (16-1), North Carolina (20-1), Duke (30-1), and Georgia Tech (40-1). This is to...state it mildly...an absolute crapshoot much like last year when Pitt won at 18-1 preseason. The entire division is littered with question marks. Neither Miami or Virginia Tech have proven commodities at QB. By the way, and this is obviously no hot take but something seems really off with the current culture in Blacksburg (9 transfers after the 2018 season). Miami’s defense should be good again in 2019, although a drop off versus the top-10 unit it was in 2018 is conceivable (man those linebackers are good though). So it feels like the media defaulted to Virginia as the Coastal winner. Which is fairly logical. The defense returns 8 starters and Bryce Perkins returns at QB. But at +220, there’s just not a ton of value to me (September 14th at home against FSU and October 11th at Miami are massive games on UVA’s schedule). So, I’ll take a shot on Carolina. There’s no proven starter at QB but the three competing for the job (RS Freshmen Jace Ruder and Cade Fortin and true Freshman Sam Howell) were all highly recruited. I love Mack Brown’s hire of Jay Bateman at Defensive Coordinator and they’ve recruited fairly well over the past 4 years. Few teams have suffered more injuries than Carolina over the past 2 seasons and it felt like the Fedora regime had just gotten stale. So from a value perspective, I like Carolina.
FIU (+550) to win Conference USA: I love QB James Morgan this season (2018: 2727 yards, 26/7) and think he has a great chance to win Conference PoY honors (I know, I know Mason Fine will have something to say about that). The offense returns 9 starters from a team that averaged 32 points per game. Defensively, Butch Davis gets 8 starters back from a unit that gave up 24 ppg, including preseason Defensive Player of the Year in Sage Lewis. The only thing that gave me pause was FIU has to go to Florida Atlantic and Marshall, who both should be really good this season. But in the end, FIU returns 17 starters from a team that went 9-4 last year and has 2 of the best players in the conference in Morgan and Lewis. And you get better odds than FAU (+290), North Texas (+425), and Marshall (5-1).