Week 5 DFS Plays : the sexy six
Week 4 had me hitting home runs with running backs and recording a bit of DNP run at WR. After publishing last week’s piece on Sunday morning, 2 of the 5 WR I was loving ended up not playing and one got hurt in the second quarter, so there isn’t much to go on there--other than Amari Cooper was bad. But, these RB’s I loved had good to great days:
L Fournette = 25.5
K Johnson = 14.7
D Henry = 11.3
A Ekler = 26.7
So, let’s see if we can keep that going. This week I am bringing you a Sexy Six. It is six players, all who are 7,800 or less on FD, that, if you play, will allow you to afford to pay up for the usual suspects (i.e. play CMC...often).
LIKE: Le’V Bell, 7.3 K, at Philly
This one might be a tough sell. Philly’s D is good and especially good vs. the run giving up only 62 yards per game (good for 4th best); however, they are BAD against the pass giving up 323.75 passing yards per game which is dead last in football. And, even better, they have given up 9 passing TDs. We know that Bell gets targets. He is 4th amongst RBs with 20 total catches and through 3 weeks (he was on bye last week) Bell has a whopping 73 touches. This is about volume and the hope that he continues to do the work in the passing game--which he should given they are 13.5 dogs. Feeling good penciling him in for at least 17 points this week.
LOVE: Leonard Fournette, 6.9 K, at Carolina
Leonard Fournette has gotten better every game this year. His FF lines (rounded) are 9, 11, 12, 25...and he STILL does not have a TD to speak of. Jacksonville is continuing to evolve their offense as they adjust to Minshew and using Fournette is clearly part of that. He is 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards per game and 3rd amongst RBs for total yards with 129.5. This week he gets a Carolina D that is 9th in rush yards per game at 130 and has given up 4 rushing TDs. Carolina stops the pass; that is their thing. In fact, they are number 1 vs. the pass. But they just gave up 134 yards and a TD to Houston’s rushing attack, and I don’t see any reason why that will end here. I am projecting Fournette for at least 18.5 points this week.
MAN CRUSH: David Johnson, 6.8 K, at Cincy
Ohhhhhh, Baby; this is a sexy match up for a sexy player! Three of his four weeks this year, Johnson has scored over 15 fantasy points. He is 3rd amongst running backs in catches with 21 total and averages 7 targets a game. Enter Cincy’s D which just gave up 8 catches on 8 targets for 83 yards and a TD to James Conner on Monday night. Add in the fact that their D is 6th worst in rush yards at 143 per game, and they give up a massive 32 carries per game with 5 rushing TD. Between how bad Cincy’s D is and how wild Kingsbury’s offense is, this has number one back for the week written all over it. Yup, I am calling that now, and he is a mere 6.8 K. Put me down projecting him as RB1 with 28.5.
LIKE: Keenan Allen, 7.5 K, home vs. Denver
I know that the matchup isn’t great, but are you really going to tell me that you are passing on the guy that leads the league in yards and targets per game when he is priced at 7.5 K??? I am not. His numbers are just nasty, and even though Denver is 5th best vs. the pass, I don’t think that tells the full story. Remember, they have played games vs. Oakland, Chicago, and Jacksonville. Yes, they did keep Rodgers and the Pack at bay, but I guess I am just not buying that this D is as good as the numbers show, and they just lost one of their best pass rushers in Chubb, AND I do think Rivers to Allen is matchup proof. He should get Chris Harris which is a top 15 individual match up. I just cannot pass this one up at 7.5 K. I got Allen with 17 points.
LOVE: Adam Thielen, 6.9 K, at NYG
Matchup, matchup, matchup!!! This week, Thielen draws DeAndre Baker which, according to RotoGrinders is the #1 matchup this week. Oh ya, and Thielen just got a public apology from his own QB on his own QB’s radio show for missing him last week. That screams “I only got eyes for you” this week. So, while AT’s numbers have not been good, I love all this. Giants are 8th worst in passing with 279.5 yards per game and 3rd worst in passing TDs with 8. Let’s look at what Mike Evans did in week 3: 8/190/3 with Winston putting up 380 yards passing. I think he scores at least once and cracks the 100-yard mark. Give me Thielen with 20.5 points.
MAN CRUSH: Chris Godwin, 7.8 K, at NOLA
I missed the big payout on Godwin by a week, having him in the Daily Dozen for week 3 and NOT in week 4, but here is the good thing about this guy: week 4 is not his last big day this season. He is a machine!!! 4th in yards per game with 96.5, 1st in TDs with 4, and 8.25 targets per, plus opposing Ds still have to worry about Mike Evans. These two make up arguably the best WR duo in the NFL and are a nightmare matchup for NOLA. Latimore should be on Evans which means Godwin draws the juicy matchup with PJ Williamson--easily could be a top 5 matchup this week. The Saint’s D is 9th worst vs. the pass with 279 yards per. I think that their impressive D versus Dallas last week was an outlier and that this game is going to have points (O/U of 47.5). Look for the man to keep playing far above his price which is still only 7.8. This will be the last week that he is priced under 8 K because this week he goes for 23.5.